"各地 'Map Warfare' for Economic Growth in Q4"

News / 2024-06-15

Around the National Day holiday, regions such as Jiangsu, Guangdong, Liaoning, and Shanghai have held numerous meetings focusing on economic work. Many places have put forward slogans like "reverse scheduling," "mapping operations," and "sprinting in the fourth quarter," demanding efforts to achieve the annual economic growth target.

Experts say that it is necessary to further leverage the driving and pillar role of major economic provinces, intensify and improve the implementation of macro policies, and lay a solid foundation for the smooth conclusion of the "14th Five-Year Plan" next year and a good start to the "15th Five-Year Plan."

"Seizing Time" to Release Policies and Fully Sprint in the Fourth Quarter

Several major economic provinces have recently held meetings and emphasized the need to be in a state of charge and sprint, rushing to "seize time" to release policies, and fully intensify efforts to do well in the fourth quarter.

Regarding the annual economic targets, major economic provinces have shown their responsibility to "strive for the forefront and shoulder the heavy burden." Jiangsu proposed to strive in the fourth quarter and decide the whole year, resolutely completing the annual target; Shandong emphasized that it would go all out to truly grasp and work hard to ensure the completion of the annual economic and social development targets and tasks.

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Faced with difficulties and challenges in the operation of the economy, localities are expected to introduce new incremental policies. Jiangsu proposed to intensify research and reserve, and timely introduce a batch of new incremental policies to fully release policy dividends and effects; Ningxia launched a "100-day battle," requiring work planned for next year and beyond to strive to start this year.

Zhong Zhengsheng, Chief Economist of Ping An Securities, told reporters from Shanghai Securities News that incremental macro policies have attracted much attention because the economy still needs policy support. Monetary and financial policies take the lead in landing, which helps to reduce the debt burden of local real economies. It is recommended to expand the use of local special bonds and optimize the debt structure of local governments.

Expand Effective Investment and Accelerate the Formation of Physical Work Volume

In response to current domestic issues such as insufficient effective demand, various regions require seizing progress and construction periods before winter, promoting the investment and construction of major projects, promoting the stabilization of the real estate market, and actively playing the effective driving role of investment.

Ningxia's "100-day battle" requires that national support projects such as "two heavy" and "two new" must be completed ahead of schedule after approval. Data shows that from January to August, Ningxia's fixed asset investment increased by 2.5% year-on-year, lower than the national level. Recent policy arrangements reflect that Ningxia has sounded the charge for the "rush work" in the fourth quarter.Shandong, a major economic province, seizes the critical construction period to accelerate the advancement of project construction. At the Shandong Autumn High-Quality Development Major Project Construction Site Promotion Meeting, 706 major projects with a total investment of 657.5 billion yuan were started in a concentrated manner, involving fields such as new-generation information technology and biomedicine, further consolidating the "ballast stone" of economic development.

The driving effect of major projects on investment is quite significant. From January to August, the completion investment of projects with a planned total investment of 100 million yuan or more nationwide increased by 7% year-on-year, with a growth rate 3.6 percentage points higher than the total investment, driving the total investment to grow by 3.8 percentage points. Luo Yifei, Chief Statistician of the Investment Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, stated that efforts should be accelerated to promote the construction of major projects in the "14th Five-Year Plan", strengthen support for large-scale equipment updates, and continue to expand effective investment.

Zheng Shanjie, Director of the National Development and Reform Commission, recently introduced that 100 billion yuan of the central budget investment plan for next year and a list of 100 billion yuan "two heavy" construction project list will be advanced within the year, supporting localities to accelerate the implementation of preliminary work and start construction first.

Create consumption hotspots and stimulate the potential of the domestic market

The fourth quarter is a traditional consumption peak season. Beijing, Shanghai, and Tianjin have planned to hold a variety of consumption promotion activities. Localities are also accelerating the implementation of consumer goods replacement policies, vigorously developing new types of consumption such as digital consumption and sports event consumption, and creating consumption hotspots.

For example, local characteristic activities such as the Sichuan Panda International Consumer Festival, Beijing "Autumn Charm Capital", and Jiangsu "Golden Autumn Benefits Purchase" will continue in the fourth quarter. Platform activities such as Shanghai Fashion Week will also be launched during the National Day period. Various localities hold a variety of new product launches, premieres, and exhibitions to create more "Golden Nine Silver Ten" consumption new hotspots.

Among them, the Sichuan Panda International Consumer Festival also issued 100 million yuan of consumption coupons for Sichuan characteristic products such as Sichuan liquor, Sichuan tea, Sichuan cuisine, Sichuan silk, and Sichuan medicinal materials to consumers nationwide, and issued 300 million yuan of "Shu Li An Yi · Huan Xin Life" home decoration consumption coupons.

In order to stimulate the vitality of sports consumption, Cheng Jing, Deputy Director of the Sichuan Provincial Sports Bureau, stated at a recent press conference that it is expected that Sichuan will hold more than 8,000 competitions and activities of all levels and types throughout the year, a year-on-year increase of 6%, driving more than 40 million people to participate in national fitness. The total scale of sports consumption in the province is expected to reach 195 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8%.

New urbanization is a "multiplier" for expanding consumption and an "accelerator" for driving investment. It is reported that the National Development and Reform Commission will work with relevant departments to give full play to the important role of new urbanization in expanding domestic demand and provide strong support for economic development.

Wang Qing, Chief Macro Analyst of Orient Jincheng, told reporters from Shanghai Securities News that the focus of macro policy in the next step is to increase support for resident consumption and unblock the domestic economic cycle. It is suggested to use fiscal tools such as long-term special national debt, significantly increase the scale of consumption coupons and consumption subsidies in stages, and strive to achieve a total retail sales of social consumer goods growth rate of about 6% for the whole year.