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International oil prices are getting lower and lower. Saudi Arabia has warned: "In the future, international oil prices may not rule out reaching $50 per barrel, so OPEC+ countries should watch their production carefully." For some time now, we have observed that international oil prices are indeed getting lower and lower. Over two years ago, when the Russia-Ukraine war just began, international oil prices once soared to over $100 per barrel, and some experts even said that if the war continued, the price might reach $130 or $160 per barrel. However, after more than two years of the Russia-Ukraine war, it seems that the world has digested this unfavorable news, and oil prices have indeed been getting lower in the past few months, reaching around $70 per barrel. Recently, a senior Saudi energy official stated that many OPEC+ countries are secretly increasing production, and if they do so, Saudi Arabia will retaliate. If all OPEC+ countries increase production, international oil prices could drop to a low point of around $50. The Russian side has stated that they have absolutely not increased production and even produced less than the scheduled amount last month.

We know that OPEC+ countries have always been very sensitive to international oil prices, after all, they are oil-producing countries, and the higher the oil prices, the more they earn. However, they also understand a truth, that is, no country can expand production capacity. If you all expand production capacity, the supply increases, and the oil price will come down. Therefore, OPEC+ countries have indeed been quite united in the past two years. Including the United States, when domestic inflation became more and more severe, Biden repeatedly lobbied Saudi Arabia, asking Saudi Arabia to increase oil production to reduce global oil prices and curb U.S. inflation. However, Saudi Arabia was unmoved, stating that the long-term trend of international oil prices is bearish. Under this condition, Saudi Arabia is still reducing production, how can it increase production?

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Indeed, Saudi Arabia's judgment is accurate. After the Federal Reserve raised interest rates for more than a dozen rounds, U.S. inflation came down. And due to the global economy being poor and demand being insufficient, international oil prices have been hovering at a low level for more than half a year. Now, due to a sharp drop in oil revenue, many OPEC+ countries are eager to secretly increase production. If you increase production while others do not, you can of course earn more money.

But if every country increases production, international oil prices will fall, and you will not only fail to steal the chicken but also lose the rice. That is why Saudi Arabia has issued such a serious warning.