35dhh.top.

At present, China's economy is at a crucial juncture. There are many interpretations of the "package of incremental policies," some of which are superficial, some are unprofessional, and some are even misinterpreted. It is necessary to clarify this to guide all parties to correctly understand the spirit of economic work.

Firstly, the "package of incremental policies" is a systematic deployment at the macro level. The press conference held by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) on October 8th was essentially the core content studied at the State Council's executive meeting on September 29th. It was revised during the holiday according to the spirit of the meeting and presented as a comprehensive plan. Its starting point is to implement the spirit of the Central Political Bureau meeting on September 26th, to comprehensively propose a policy framework for the economic sector to respond to the current situation. It should not be considered as merely an introduction to the specific work of a single department. The combination of five aspects has an internal logic: macroeconomic regulation and counter-cyclical adjustment are the overall requirements, expanding domestic effective demand is the main direction, increasing assistance and support for enterprises is to create a good environment, promoting the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize is to solve the biggest risk, and boosting the capital market is the key to expectations. Some policies first propose directions, and then departments responsible for the division of labor propose detailed measures. Therefore, if one interprets the press conference on October 8th purely from the technical level of policy items, there will be a perspective bias.

Secondly, macroeconomic regulation is not only about fiscal and monetary policies. China's macroeconomic governance is a "1+2+6" framework (that is, with national development planning as the strategic orientation, fiscal and monetary policies as the main means, and employment, industry, investment, consumption, environmental protection, regional and other policies closely coordinated). After policies are introduced in the financial field, other fields must follow suit. Market observation of macroeconomic regulation often focuses on analysis articles from financial institutions that speak more, and since the vast majority of analysts do not have direct experience in macroeconomic regulation, they often only provide opinions within the financial circle's perspective. At the macro level, the issues to be considered are much more complex. For example, the requirement for consistency in the direction of macro policies this time is no longer limited to before the introduction of policies, but the requirement for consistency is implemented throughout the process of policy formulation and implementation. This is a significant change, meaning that there is much more room for correction in policy operations, and the judgment and adjustment of policies will be more closely combined with actual effects.

Advertisement

Thirdly, when looking at policies, one cannot only look at numbers. Some policies can be quantified, while others cannot. The "X trillion"的说法, although vivid and appealing, is popular and people wish the number to be as high as possible. However, such policies have specific适用范围, and it is not possible to only talk about numbers at every press conference, because economic policies are not a number game. There is a kind of rhythmic speech that is good at stepping on the point, first deliberately using numbers to raise expectations, and then casually saying "not as expected". This is actually a trick to cooperate with short positions to make a layout, manipulating the market by mobilizing emotional fluctuations to profit from it, which needs to be identified. Of course, policy makers must also consider market emotions and determine the intensity, timing, and steps of policy introduction from the perspective of "policy demanders". We believe that the increment will definitely include new investments, and "X trillion" will definitely be there, but some may still need to go through the legal process, so everyone should be patient and not be easily led by the rhythm.

Fourthly, when looking at policies, one should also look at some key moves. Some policies can directly leverage huge funds, and some policies, although not involving investment, are worth a lot. For example, regarding the development environment of the private economy, this time it was highlighted, and for issues such as "illegal异地 enforcement" and "profit-driven enforcement" that entrepreneurs reflect strongly, not only were they not avoided, but also said "carry out supervision when necessary", which shows the central attitude. Next, it is believed that the Private Economy Promotion Law will be introduced faster, which will become a symbolic event, and its significance for the economy is no less than "X trillion". Another example is the new type of urbanization, which is a typical issue that the official is more concerned about and the market institution is less concerned about. Although the current urbanization is difficult to replicate the past's large role in driving growth, but in any case, the settlement of 170 million people will have a greater support effect on real estate, investment, and consumption. This is a big move released by economic work, and the current professional analysis is obviously less.

Fifthly, more incremental policies are on the way. The financial sector's press conference on September 24th was the horn for this round of regulation, the Central Political Bureau meeting on September 26th issued a general mobilization order, the State Council's executive meeting on September 29th made a systematic deployment, and the NDRC's press conference on October 8th introduced a package of policies - looking at these meetings, it is necessary to look at them in sequence, not in isolation. It can be said that this is just the beginning, it is the general signal issued by the central government in economic work, and we will definitely see various departments introduce policies that are conducive to the economic recovery in the future according to their own responsibilities. Similarly, various places will also quickly follow up, to truly turn the central government's decision-making and deployment into the conscious actions of various places, and to promote the continuous recovery and improvement of the economy as the current top task. And some issues of concern to localities, such as local debt risks, will also be gradually resolved through strong measures. Therefore, the intensity and continuity of subsequent policies can be expected.

According to the economic operation in the fourth quarter, the Central Economic Work Conference in December will also make arrangements for the economic work of the next year, which is also worth looking forward to. More importantly, next year is also the year of the "15th Five-Year Plan", combining long-term development needs, a large number of major projects, major projects, and major policies will also be launched. The close combination of short-term and long-term is an important characteristic of China's economy, and the "increment" brought by the "15th Five-Year Plan" will be an important support for the next step of China's economy to stabilize and improve. Looking at economic work, it is also necessary to analyze and grasp the trend from such time nodes.